Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

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Original-Research: Marley Spoon Group SE - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu Marley Spoon Group SE

Unternehmen: Marley Spoon Group SE

ISIN: LU2380748603

Anlass der Studie: Update

Empfehlung: BUY

seit: 15.02.2024

Kursziel: 8.00

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Mark Schüssler

Strategic transactions closed; est. & PT chg.

Marley Spoon Group ('MSG') closed the strategic transactions announced on

January 31st. Here is what you need to know:

Acquisition of BistroMD. MSG closed the acquisition of BistroMD, a leading

doctor-designed ready-toeat (RTE) meal plan company in the US (c. EUR 35m

revenues in 2023), offering MSG an opportunity to use its own data and

technology platform to generate synergies and performance improvements over

time. While BistroMD should currently be loss-making due to lack of

sufficient scale (c. 30% contribution margin, eNuW), fulfilment, G&A, and

marketing expenses are seen to decrease significantly from currently c. EUR

27.5m (eNuW) to c. EUR 20m by 2025e (eNuW) thanks to the integration into

MSG's platform. In sum, we regard BistroMD as a strategically sensible

add-on as it adds a double-digit growing RTE business that capitalizes on

the increasing health & wellness consciousness of the American consumer.

Depending on the underlying share price assumed, the acquisition price of

around EUR 15m (eNuW) comprises c. EUR 1113m in debt as well as 1.4m MSG

shares, along with an earn-out of up to 1.2m additional shares (12 months

post-closing), and 450k warrants with strike prices ranging from EUR 15 to EUR

20. Assuming a share price of EUR 2.00, MSG acquires BistroMD at an EV/Sales

FY23 multiple 0.43x, a 48% premium to MSG's own current valuation of 0.29x.

Partnership with FreshRealm. Furthermore, MSG entered into a 7-year

strategic partnership for manufacturing and fulfilment with FreshRealm by

selling its US operating assets for EUR 22m to FreshRealm, which will operate

the fulfilment centre and become MSG's exclusive operations partner in the

US. This provides Marley Spoon with a scalable and capitalefficient way of

operating in the US, delegating assetheavy fulfilment and warehouse

operations (back-end) to an experienced partner while continuing to focus

its investments on customer-facing competencies (front-end). Net cost

savings are seen to amount to c. EUR 12m in G&A and should thus favourably

impact margins going forward.

Debt terms & capital raise. Both deals are supported by an c. EUR 8m equity

raise through c. 2m treasury shares at EUR 4.00 per share. Moreover, Runway,

the company's biggest debtholder, supports these transactions and agreed to

a 12-months extension of the debt facilities' interest-only period to

January 2026 and maturity date to June 2027. Upon closure of the

transactions, MSG will repay Runway EUR 10.3m of the outstanding loan

balance. Importantly, the asset sale, capital raise, and debt facility

extension provide Marley Spoon with ample breathing room to reinvigorate

its meal-kit and adjacent operations as well as time to successfully

integrate its recent acquisitions.

Growth outlook. Including the financial impact of the transactions

described above, Marley Spoon is well-positioned to return to profitable

topline growth, reaching c. EUR 384m sales (+16.9% yoy, eNuW) and c. EUR 2m

operating EBITDA (+1.4ppts yoy, eNuW) in FY24e. This should mainly be

driven by a return to active customer growth to c. 211k (+ 12% yoy, eNuW),

and leverage in its multi-region and multi-brand meal kit platform to

1. further penetrate the still vastly underpenetrated $ 7tn global food &

grocery market, harnessing deep-seated consumer trends like convenience and

wellness;

2. grow basket size via more differentiated service offerings (AI-driven

recipe development and ranking for +100 weekly recipe options);

3. and realize revenue and cost synergies from its newly acquired BistroMD

and FreshRealm partnerships going forward.

The Group remains attractively priced trading at only 0.28x EV/Sales 2024e,

leading us to reiterate our BUY rating with a changed PT of EUR 8.00 (old: EUR

8.60) based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/28897.pdf

Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden

www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen

Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden

www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.

Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung

oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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