Original-Research: R. STAHL AG (von NuWays AG): Buy

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Original-Research: R. STAHL AG - from NuWays AG

07.11.2024 / 09:07 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to R. STAHL AG

Company Name: R. STAHL AG

ISIN: DE000A1PHBB5

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

Target price: EUR 25.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Mixed Q3 with sales in line and adj. EBITDA below estimates

Topic: R. Stahl released its Q3 results yesterday with sales in line and

adj. EBITDA below our estimates. Further, the company specified its FY24e

adj. EBITDA guidance.

Q3 revenue increased slightly by 1.7% yoy to EUR 87.4m (eNuW: EUR 90m) due to a

strong oil & gas, marine and pharmaceutical sector. Adj. EBITDA came in at EUR

8.8m (eNuW: EUR 12m), a 35% decrease yoy with a 5.7ppts margin reduction to

10.0%. While personnel expenses remained roughly unchanged yoy, other

operating expenses increased 9.5% yoy to EUR 15.9m due to one-time effects

such as from the implementation of the EXcelerate strategy program as stated

in the CC (c. EUR 1m in Q3'24, c. EUR 3.7m in 9M'24).

The materials cost ratio increased slightly to 34.1% (vs. 33.4% in Q3'23)

mainly driven by a EUR 0.85m stock write off. From a geographic perspective,

Americas performed well with 11.7% yoy sales growth thanks to a strong order

backlog in the oil & gas industry. In contrast, Germany, the Central region

and Asia/Pacific showed a flat sales development in Q3.

Order intake decreased 9.4% yoy to EUR 74m attributable to economic

uncertainties and investment reluctance, leading to EUR 108m in order backlog

(vs. EUR 132m in Q3'23). While order intake in Americas was soft due to

uncertainties from the US election, demand is seen to bounce back in Q4

especially for oil & gas. Order intake in the chemical industry remained

muted and improvements are not expected soon.

FCF improved considerably yoy to EUR 6.0m, despite a lower net income and

thanks to a reduction in working capital as supply chains eased compared to

last year. This development should continue in Q4, leading to a mid

single-digit EURm FCF for FY24e (vs. EUR 0.3m in FY23; eNuW: EUR 6.5m).

R. Stahl reiterated its sales (EUR 335-350m) and FCF guidance for FY24e (mid

single-digit EURm) but specified its adj. EBITDA forecast to EUR 35-40m

(previously: EUR 35-45m). The top-line guidance looks plausible in our view

(eNuW: EUR 344m), even though we decreased our Q4 estimate due to the lower

than expected order intake. However, while Q4'24e can still benefit to a

large extent from the current backlog, H1'25e is more dependent on order

intake in the coming quarters. Hence, we take a more cautious stand for

FY25e. Moreover, the adj. EBITDA outlook looks reasonable (eNuW: EUR 36m) as

Q3'24 was impacted by one-offs that will not occur in Q4'24e to a similar

extent.

We reiterate our BUY rating with a new PT of EUR 25 (old: EUR 29), based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31207.pdf

For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2024413 07.11.2024 CET/CEST

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