ETFs: „The great trust is no longer there“
The long-lasting tech euphoria is over, the mood is more mixed. Buying still dominates, but some prefer to sell tech and semiconductor ETFs. There is also more skepticism about the major indices.
17 September 2024 FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Yesterday was a wave of selling; buying is once again predominant on the ETF market. Holger Heinrich from Baader Bank reports more inflows than outflows for the past week, with a slight decline in turnover. Frank Mohr from Société Générale takes a similar view. However, the old euphoria is not back. ‘We are also seeing a lot of selling, the gap between buying and selling is no longer large.’ The proportion of turnover in bond ETFs is also unusually high at 44 per cent. At Société Générale, values of around 30 per cent are usual.
‘There is no longer any great confidence,’ Mohr notes and reports only a slight buying overhang in US (IE000XZSV718) and global equities (IE00B4L5Y983). According to Baader Bank, low-volatility ETFs are in demand (LU1589349734). US equities with ESG filters, such as the Amundi S&P 500 Equal Weight ESG Leaders (IE000LAP5Z18) and the Ossiam US ESG Low Carbon Equity Factors (IE00BJBLDK52), are more likely to be on the sell lists.‘ESG was also in focus for the World ETFs, but not with a clear trend,’ adds Heinrich and reports inflows (IE0003NQ0IY5) and outflows (IE000Z8BHG02).
According to Mohr, the buying overhang is clearer in trading with European equities. Popular here: the iShares Core MSCI Europe (IE00B4K48X80). According to Heinrich, some country ETFs are also in demand, for example with shares from Austria, Switzerland and France. India also remains a major topic at Lang & Schwarz: ‘Purchases are continuing,’ says Leo Puschmann.
Less interest in ESG
ESG ETFs are currently having a harder time, as confirmed by figures from the ETF analysis and trading company Crossflow. From a regional perspective, around 47 per cent of net funds on the equity side flowed into global products from January to August, with 37 per cent going into US products, 10 per cent into European products and 6 per cent into Asian products.
Three quarters of the funds were invested in large cap products, 20 per cent in sector and factor ETFs and only 3 per cent in ESG products. ‘In addition, in the case of equity ETFs on US underlyings, it is striking that almost EUR 10 billion net was withdrawn from strict ‘best in class’ products by August in order to shift into light green US and global exclusion-only products,’ explains Crossflow.
Tech industry: optimists and sceptics
The great enthusiasm for AI seems to have faded. ‘Demand for technology and semiconductor ETFs has declined,’ notes Puschmann.
‘Tech ETFs still account for a third of our turnover in sector ETFs, but it's no longer just purchases,’ explains Mohr. The iShares S&P 500 Information Technology (IE00B3WJKG14) and Xtrackers Artificial Intelligence & Big Data (IE00BGV5VN51), which have long been extremely popular, are now being traded in both directions. However, Heinrich is still observing buying interest in cloud computing ETFs (IE00BMH5YF48).
The number two theme is the healthcare sector, with inflows into the Xtrackers MSCI World Health Care (IE00BM67HK77), for example, but outflows from the Invesco Nasdaq Biotech (IE00BQ70R696), as Mohr reports. According to Heinrich, the SPDR MSCI World Health (IE00BYTRRB94) is doing well. Also in focus: the energy sector. Société Générale is registering purchases and sales, Baader Bank purchases for the iShares Global Clean Energy (IE00B1XNHC34). Also popular: the UBS Solactive Global Pure Gold Miners (IE00B7KMNP07), as Mohr notes. The price of gold recently rose to a new all-time high of USD 2,589.
Money market yes, cryptos no
According to traders, trading in bond ETFs is mostly about money market products. Demand continues. Mohr sees purchases for the overnight rate ETF from Amundi (FR0010510800), but also sales for the one from Xtracker (LU0290358497).
The fact that the price of Ethereum has recently fallen again is reflected in trading in crypto ETNs. Puschmann reports sales for Ethereum and Bitcoin trackers. ‘Trading in the other currencies is unremarkable.’
| Shares | |
| USA | Buy |
| World | Buy |
| Europe | Buy |
| ESG | Sell |
| Industries | |
| Technology/Semiconductors | Buy/Sell |
| Health | Buy/Sell |
| Energy | Buy/Sell |
| Bonds | |
| Money market | Buy |
| Crypto | |
| Crypto-ETN | Sell |
By Anna-Maria Borse, 17 September 2024, © Deutsche Börse AG
Über die Autorin
Anna-Maria Borse ist Finanz- und Wirtschaftsredakteurin mit den Schwerpunkten Finanzmarkt/Börse und volkswirtschaftliche Themen.
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Borse
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