Market sentiment: “With success behind us”

9 October 2024. FRANKFURT (Goldberg & Goldberg). Auch in der vergangenen Sentiment-Woche sind die positiven Impulse für den DAX in erster Linie aus dem Ausland gekommen. Allen voran die Stimulus-Maßnahmen der politischen Führung bzw. der Notenbank Chinas, die vor allem dortzulande für ein extrem euphorisches und dramatisches Plus an den Aktienmärkten gesorgt hatten. Und auch der DAX konnte während des Berichtszeitraums noch einmal zwei neue Allzeithochs produzieren: Zeitweise betrug das Kursplus seit unserer vergangenen Stimmungserhebung 2,6 Prozent.

Nun dürfte der Rücksetzer des DAX mit Beginn des neuen Monats wohl kaum der seit Dienstag begonnenen Feiertagswoche und den damit ausbleibenden weiteren positiven Börsenimpulsen aus China geschuldet sein. Auch wenn die kriegerischen Auseinandersetzungen in Nahost bislang an den Aktienmärkten kaum spürbare Auswirkungen zeitigten, spricht einiges dafür, dass die jüngste Eskalation auch für Druck auf den DAX gesorgt hat. Oder war dessen Schwäche zu Beginn des Monats Oktober doch eher so etwas wie ein Reminiszenz an seine Anfang August bzw. September ebenfalls zu beobachtenden deutlichen Abwärtskorrekturen? Immerhin sind vom Kursgewinn seit vergangenem Mittwoch noch 1,6 Prozent übrig geblieben.

Confidently switched to the bulls

Meanwhile, institutional investors with a medium-term trading horizon, most of whom have recently been pessimistic, have apparently used the DAX setback to buy as we expected, albeit slightly ahead of the forecast level. And to a not inconsiderable extent. Our Börse Frankfurt Sentiment Index has risen by 31 points compared to the previous week to a new level of +14. This is the biggest change in sentiment we have seen since March 2022. At the same time, the bear camp has shrunk by 21 percentage points, with just under half of the former pessimists having turned 180° directly to the bull side. The remaining switchers were content to take profits.

Optimism among private investors, as measured by our Börse Frankfurt Sentiment Index, has also increased significantly once again. In this panel, we note an index increase of 15 points to a new level of +27 - the highest level since 22 November 2023. The migration of investors since last Wednesday is very similar to that of institutional investors: the bear camp has lost 9 percentage points, whereby two thirds of the former pessimists, led by those participants we survey via social media, have moved directly to the bull side.

Repeating the success

The bottom line is that the sentiment gap between private and institutional investors has narrowed as a result of today's survey. Many former pessimists have obviously used the DAX setback below the 19,000 mark to position themselves directly for a renewed DAX rise. Encouraged not least by the fact that institutional investors in particular were particularly bold in switching to the bull side with a tidy profit behind them. However, the resulting (home-made) rise in the DAX has so far remained manageable. We see this as an indication that significant long-term capital inflows (from abroad) have failed to materialize.

Even if the DAX's optimism is still somewhat higher than in absolute terms, even in a three- and six-month comparison, it should not be classified as too high and therefore dangerous. However, the most recent sentiment development does represent a certain burden for the DAX. On the one hand on the upside, because the young optimists of today will probably soon want to realize any profits, presumably near the previous all-time high in the 19,480/19,530 range. On the downside, on the other hand, recent developments have used up a large part of the potential demand in the event of another DAX setback. This is undoubtedly the DAX's Achilles heel (presumably below 18,700 points), especially if there are also capital outflows from foreign investors.

Von Joachim Goldberg

9 October, 2024, © Goldberg & Goldberg für boerse-frankfurt.de

The Börse Frankfurt Sentiment Index moves between -100 (total pessimism) and +100 (total optimism), the transition from positive to negative values marks the neutral line. 

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