Original-Research: UBM Development AG (von NuWays AG): Buy

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Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG

29.11.2024 / 09:02 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG

Company Name: UBM Development AG

ISIN: AT0000815402

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 29.11.2024

Target price: EUR 27.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Strong residential & further improved total output; chg.

Yesterday, UBM released its Q3 results, showing continued muted top-line

development but promising signs from the residential segment. In detail:

Q3 total output, which is defined as sales plus pro-rata sales of companies

consolidated at-equity as well as proceeds from share deals, increased by

7.2% yoy to EUR 70.3m. This was driven by the sale of property shares and the

progress of construction on previously sold real estate projects. In

addition, UBM had another strong quarter in terms of residential units sold,

as the number of units increased sixfold to 186 and a total of 283 at 9M.

For FY, management targets to sell a total of 400 units. Overall, UBM has

3,000 units on sale or under development, which are seen to be sold over the

next 4 years, providing sound visibility on residential output.

Despite this, Q3 sales declined yoy by 18% to EUR 20.5m, thus being

significantly behind our estimate of EUR 35m, as we expected more of total

output to be realized as sales. However, management already painted a

confident picture for FY25e, targeting the disposal of the LeopoldQuartier

Office in Vienna, which would lead to a top-line spike in H2. On the other

side, management remained cautious regarding the disposal of the Timber

Pioneer, as all interested buyers seek to see the property rented out, while

there are still 4,500 sqm vacant (~30% of floor space).

On a positive note, Q3 EBITDA improved to EUR 0.3m, based on positive changes

to the portfolio as well as the absence of negative valuation results.

While it is still uncertain when the market will fully reopen, first

positive signs are visible, especially in residential, but also recent

letting successes in office (i.e. LeopoldQuartier in Vienna), point towards

rehabilitation.

That being said, UBM remains well positioned, having further smoothened the

maturity profile with the recent bond placement. Moreover, the company's

product should be in great demand once the market reopens given the strong

sustainability footprint in the pipeline. This should make UBM projects

attractive, given tightening regulations in connection with the EU taxonomy.

BUY with an unchanged EUR 27.00 PT based on DDM.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31443.pdf

For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2040827 29.11.2024 CET/CEST

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