With so much money likely to be spent on defense in Germany and at EU level in the future, many are betting on a further rise in defense stocks - especially Rheinmetall. Tech stocks have taken a back seat.
13 March 2025 FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). High fluctuations on the markets are leading to high turnover in certificate trading. “It's extremely busy at the moment,” reports Patrick Kesselhut from Société Générale. Markus Königer from ICF Bank also reports very lively trading - with products on share indices, individual shares, but also on cryptocurrencies. Simon Görich from Baader Bank is also busy: “As a result of the generally difficult situation due to Trump, tariffs, Ukraine, the German elections, etc., we have seen a significant increase in trading volumes in recent weeks,” he explains.
As far as the underlyings are concerned, the DAX is at the forefront as usual. But then comes Rheinmetall, as the traders report. “Pretty much everything on defense underlyings is doing well,” notes Görich. Apart from that, the highest-turnover underlyings at ICF are Nasdaq, Dow Jones, gold and Tesla, while the situation at Société Générale is similar with Tesla, gold, Nvidia and Nasdaq. “The MDAX and MDAX companies have also come into focus,” explains Kesselhut. The reason: the hope that the MDAX will benefit in particular from the new government's spending package. Oil and currencies, on the other hand, are not a major topic at the moment.
Betting on falling and rising prices
In the area of investment products on indices, discount certificates continue to be in demand, as traders note. Leveraged products on indices mostly focus on the DAX, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and S&P 500. There is no discernible direction. Bullish and bearish positions are popular. According to Königer, open-end knock-out puts (DE000PL64G39) and calls on the DAX (DE000PL5F6X8) and factor long (DE000PM20NQ5) and short warrants (DE000PJ7NDP1) on the Nasdaq are showing high turnover.
Defense and tech sectors dominate
Discount certificates are also convincing when it comes to individual stocks, according to Königer, for example on France's electronics group Schneider Electric (DE000DQ0B5C8). “A sideways yield of between 7 and 10 percent is attractive here.” Kesselhut sees good demand for discount certificates on Airbus (DE000SY2EAK6) and Novo-Nordisk (DE000SJ9L8M3). The yields here are currently 13.3 and 20.5 percent respectively.
Among the many leverage products on Rheinmetall, bullish products dominate, as Königer notes, including, for example, open-end knock-out calls (DE000PL7R5G9). At Société Générale, factor long warrants on Rheinmetall (DE000SH3N4C1) are well received. Other important underlyings from the sector: Italy's defense and aerospace group Leonardo and US software group Palantir, an important supplier to the US army.
Also in focus at ICF: Tesla, Siemens Energy and Meta. At Société Générale, there is also a lot of focus on Tesla and Nvidia, but also on German stocks such as Siemens Energy and Porsche. Hedging against the slump in US tech stocks is currently not an issue. “That would also be too expensive, we are now waiting for the bottom to form,” comments Kesselhut.
Patrick Kesselhut
Crypto baskets extremely popular
Cryptocurrencies are also currently fluctuating strongly, although the trend has recently been downwards. Bitcoin cost USD 83,200 on Thursday morning, compared to a peak of over USD 109,000 in January. Two crypto baskets continue to be among the most traded products on the ICF: the tracker certificate on Der Aktionär Krypto TSI (CH1171791515) and the tracker certificate on Börse Online Best of Krypto (CH1171793321), both from Swiss issuer Leonteq.
By Anna-Maria Borse, 13 March 2025, © Deutsche Börse
Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in the financial market/stock exchange and economic topics.
Feedback and questions to redaktion@deutsche-boerse.com