Certificates: "The picture was more mixed even before the price slump"

The picture in certificate trading is clearer than ever. People are betting on tech stocks, and preferably on Nvidia. The expectation is that the upward trend will continue. The situation is more mixed for oil and gold.
 

4 Juli 2024. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Nasdaq, Apple, Tesla and above all Nvidia - almost everything in certificate trading revolves around technology stocks. "The focus is clearly on tech stocks, mostly US stocks," reports Markus Königer, who trades certificates for ICF Bank. "The picture is more colorful than ever - with Nvidia at the top of the turnover list," explains Patrick Kesselhut from Société Générale. Both traders are reporting good turnover. However, certificate trader Simon Görich from Baader Bank is also observing a lot of wait-and-see at the moment. "The general conditions call for caution, such as the war in Ukraine, the general economic data and the elections in France and the USA." He is particularly interested in global indices and precious metals - as well as tech stocks.

DAX: There is a lot of confidence 

The DAX has been weaker since its all-time high of 18,895 points in mid-May, but recently rose again to 18,418 points on Thursday morning. The Nasdaq 100 even reached a new historic high yesterday, Wednesday.   

The most popular underlyings at ICF over the past four weeks have been the DAX, Nvidia, Nasdaq, gold, Dow Jones, Apple, Euro Stoxx, Rheinmetall, oil and the S&P 500. At Société Générale, the picture is almost identical, with the DAX, Nvidia, Nasdaq, gold, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Euro Stoxx, silver, Rheinmetall and Tesla as favorites. "Then come all the other US tech stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta," explains Kesselhut.

As far as the DAX is concerned, discount certificates dominate trading in investment products, followed by bonus and reverse bonus certificates, as Kesselhut notes. In leverage products, open-end knock-outs are at the top, mostly bullish. According to Königer, the DAX certificates with the highest turnover are sometimes bullish, such as the open-end knock-out call with a strike price of 17,898 points (<DE000DQ2XUN5>), but sometimes bearish, such as the open-end knock-out put with a strike price of 18,823 (<DE000DQ3ZZ36>).

Nvidia dominates the turnover lists

In the case of leverage products on individual stocks, the enormous interest in Nvidia is clearly evident. "Ten of the fifteen highest-turnover factor certificates relate to Nvidia," says Kesselhut. Examples: two bullish warrants with leverage 6 (DE000SB01V92, DE000SD3RWB4). The open-end knock-outs are similar, although not quite as Nvidia-heavy. These are mostly bullish products, but an open-end knock-out put (DE000SW7JNW4) is also very popular. 

The bullish leverage products on Nvidia, warrants (DE000HS75CE2) and knock-outs (DE000HS6C674), are also at the top of Koenger's turnover list. "German companies such as VW hardly play a role at the moment," notes the ICF trader. The only exception: the armaments group Rheinmetall. Here, too, prices are apparently expected to rise further (<DE000PC6R1C7>). 

Oil and gold - both sides played

There is currently a lot of movement in oil: after falling to USD 77 at the beginning of June, a barrel of Brent is now back at just under USD 87. Here, the ICF figures show bullish (<DE000DQ39U57>) and bearish positioning. The situation is similar for gold, where there is also speculation on rising and falling prices. The gold price has been treading water for several weeks. After reaching a new high of just under 2,450 points in May, the troy ounce now costs USD 2,354. 

Crypto baskets in demand

The best-selling product at ICF Bank over the past four weeks was once again a crypto tracker, namely the tracker certificate on "Der Aktionär" Krypto TSI (CH1171791515). This automatically invests in the ten cryptos with the strongest trends from a pool of cryptocurrencies according to fixed rules. The tracker certificate on "Börse Online" Best of Krypto (CH1171793321) also remains in high demand. This tracks the ten largest crypto-coins, valued according to their market capitalization. Bitcoin has recently fallen back below USD 59,000 after peaking at over USD 73,000 in March.

By Anna-Maria Borse, 7. Juli 2024 © Deutsche Börse AG