Weekly outlook: “The quake continues”

“Further setbacks not ruled out”

Market technician Christian Henke from IG speaks of a Black Friday and a “real massacre” on the Nasdaq tech stock exchange. “The risk of a global recession has increased immensely,” he explains. Even the DAX, which had been strong up to that point, had “come under the wheels”. "It has fallen slightly below the exponential 200-day line. A quick recovery would be important." If there is no counter-offensive, there is a risk of further price losses.

“Whether and to what extent the downward spiral on the stock markets will continue over the next few days is likely to depend primarily on the governments involved,” notes Sören Hettler from DZ Bank. If the US government in particular signals a clear willingness to negotiate, the image of “dealmaker Trump” could come to the fore again and provide reassurance. “However, if Trump continues the tough stance he has taken in recent months, further setbacks cannot be ruled out.”

“Back to the upward trend in the foreseeable future”

According to Robert Halver, however, the dramatic fall in sentiment means that there is already a lot of negativity in share prices. “Due to previous price losses, the drop has become smaller,” he says. He advises investors not to abandon the stock markets completely. “Anti-cyclical investors with a longer-term horizon could gradually approach cyclicals again if the correction is more advanced, and regular equity savers anyway.”

DekaBank is also showing a little confidence. The high level of uncertainty will remain and cause pronounced price fluctuations. “However, as we continue to expect a resilient global economy overall, we anticipate that the stock markets will return to their upward trend in the foreseeable future,” explains chief economist Ulrich Kater.

In addition to further developments in the trade conflict, the latest US inflation figures are also likely to attract attention in the new week. In addition, the new reporting season kicks off on Friday in a week otherwise lacking in events, with the first US companies publishing their figures for the first quarter. As usual, the banks will start.