Bonds: “Customs shock causes yields to tumble”

“Difficult balancing act” for central banks

Trump's tariff policy also poses new challenges for central banks. Recession worries have increased in the USA. At the same time, inflation is still above the Fed's target, with higher inflation expectations recently. There are now fears of stagflation. “This creates a difficult balancing act for the US Federal Reserve,” notes Oechsner.

The situation is different in the eurozone: the inflation rate fell to 2.2 percent in March, while the core inflation rate fell to 2.4 percent. “In the coming months, core inflation is likely to fall further and come very close to the ECB's target of 2 percent,” says Commerzbank analyst Vincent Stamer. This argues for a further interest rate cut by the ECB in April.

According to Oechsner, long-dated US government bonds, specifically those maturing in 2041 and 2042 (US912810QN19, US912810QY73), which are currently yielding 4.26 and 4.42 percent, are being actively traded. According to Daniel, bonds in Turkish lira, such as those of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EBRD (XS2779805097), which were in high demand in previous weeks, are no longer an issue. “Turkey is now completely overshadowed by what is happening in the USA.”

Porsche, Schaeffler and ZF under pressure

The risk premiums on corporate bonds are currently comparatively volatile, as bond analyst Christine Bredehöft from DZ Bank explains. The infrastructure package launched by the designated German government has also contributed to this development. “Overall, the hopes associated with the infrastructure package for a revival of the German and European economy on the one hand and the fears of negative effects of customs policy on the other are largely balanced.”

In corporate bond trading, the focus remains on the automotive sector. According to Daniel, Porsche bonds are on the sell lists, as are bonds from automotive suppliers ZF (XS2010039977) and Schaeffler (DE000A2YB7B5). “This fits in perfectly with the changed global economic conditions.” On the other hand, he sees good demand for the MTU Aero Engines bond maturing in 2031 (XS2887896574), which is currently yielding 3.39 percent. Equally popular: Nestlé bonds (XS2350621863), which are considered “solid” and are due to mature this June and currently yield 2.24 percent. “Overall, however, there is a sense of helplessness: how should one position oneself in these times?” he observes. Oechsner reports high turnover for Siemens bonds (DE000A1UDWN5) and US dollar bonds from Apple (US037833BZ29) maturing in 2028 and 2026 with current yields of 2.23 and 3.52 percent.