Certificates: “Crypto products dominate exchange trading”

Great interest in crypto products

Towards the end of the year, investors increasingly focused on leveraged products on crypto stocks such as Microstrategy and Coinbase. The entire crypto sector was increasingly sought after. The rally in cryptocurrencies triggered by the surprisingly clear outcome of the US presidential election played a key role in this. Of the ten products with the highest turnover on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in 2024, six securities belonged to this segment. The tracker certificate on the “DER AKTIONÄR Krypto TSI” index (CH1171791515) issued by Leonteq in mid-2022 was traded particularly frequently. The underlying, which is recompiled every three months, always contains the ten “trending” cryptocurrencies. Following Donald Trump's election victory, the tracker rose by over 160% within four weeks before correcting by 20%.

Vontobel's open-ended participation certificate on BTC/USD (DE000VQ63TC1), which has been in existence since spring 2021, and the mini future on the Bitcoin future (DE000VM87TM8), which was only launched by the Swiss company at the end of January, were also bought very often. The latter rose more than sevenfold at its peak thanks to the leverage effect. Things did not go so well for a Bitcoin Turbo, which was also in high demand in the first half of the year, rising in price by a good 200% at times in the first quarter, but was then knocked out in the course of the early summer correction of the cryptocurrency at Bitcoin prices of around USD 55,000. The bond was therefore no longer able to benefit from the bull market at the end of the year.

DAX-Put mit sehr hohen Umsätzen

Das Produkt mit den mit Abstand höchsten Umsätzen im gesamten Jahr war allerdings kein Krypto-Papier, sondern ein Turbo Put-Optionsschein von Vontobel auf den DAX, der Anfang Dezember nahe der neuen Rekordmarke des Index ebenfalls vorzeitig fällig wurde. Viele Anlegerinnen und Anleger wollten damit wohl entweder ihre gut gelaufenen Aktienbestände absichern oder bewusst auf eine Korrektur des DAX setzen. Aufgrund der bei starken Kursrückgängen an den Aktienmärkten in der Regel deutlich steigenden impliziten Volatilität eignen sich Put-Optionsscheine für solche Strategien sehr gut. „Bei den klassischen Warrants spielt der DAX nach wie vor die Hauptrolle“, bestätigt auch Kesselhut.

Im Bereich der Einzelaktien hingegen blieben vor allem Knock-out-Produkte das bevorzugte Anlagevehikel. Gesucht war hier 2024 vor allem ein Open End Turbo Call Optionsschein der UBS auf den Rüstungskonzern Rheinmetall (DE000UM1S8L6). Der Mitte Februar an den Markt gebrachte Schein konnte sich im Hoch fast verachtfachen. 

Clear outperformance with semiconductor discounters

In the investment certificate segment, discounters on the relatively volatile European chip stocks were in demand in 2024. One of the top sellers was a Société Générale discount certificate on ASML Holding (<DE000SU2GHW5>), which matured shortly before Christmas. As the share did not reach the cap of EUR 790 at the end, investors were booked ASML shares into their portfolio. All in all, the certificate nevertheless achieved a price gain of around 15 percent since its issue 13 months earlier, outperforming the share (plus 9 percent). The DZ Bank discount on Infineon (<DE000DW8PD11>), which has also just expired, performed even better and was redeemed three years after its issue with a plus of 36 percent (share price: plus 12 percent) at the maximum amount of 30 euros.

“Quanto products could become exciting again”

For the stock market year that has just started, Kesselhut expects interest in products on American technology shares to remain strong for the time being “due to the clear profit trend”. “Crypto shares will also remain exciting,” predicts the certificate specialist, who also expects increased volatility in the EUR/USD exchange rate. According to Kesselhut, the stronger fluctuations here could be triggered by comments from Donald Trump. “Especially if they are directed at the US Federal Reserve”. Can the US currency continue to soar in this environment and thus provide an additional tailwind for euro-denominated products on US assets such as 2024? “Against this backdrop, quanto products could become exciting again,” says the Société Générale expert, pointing to securities with built-in currency protection as an alternative.

By Thomas Koch, 2 January, 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG