Weekly outlook: Confidence despite crises
Despite tariff increases and geopolitical crises, the German stock market is on the rise again on Rose Monday. A further interest rate cut is firmly expected for the ECB meeting on Thursday.
3 March 2025 FRANKFURT (“Börse Frankfurt”). The fact that the announced US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China will be introduced tomorrow (Tuesday) has led to uncertainty on the stock markets. New tariff threats against the EU and the rift between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky are also fueling nervousness. Nevertheless, the German stock market is stronger again on Monday morning. The DAX stood at 22,784 points after 22,551 points at the close of trading on Friday. The record high of 22,935 points is once again within reach. The US stock markets also rose again on Friday after previously suffering heavy losses.
“However, tariffs remain the proverbial sword of Damocles that will continue to cause volatility,” explains Thorsten Weinelt from Commerzbank. He also assumes that the economic data due to be released over the course of the week will not be completely silent. “The consolidation on the stock market is likely to continue.” It is unlikely that the end of the reporting season will bring about a turnaround for the better. “This is because positive surprises have been less appreciated so far in this reporting season than disappointments have been punished.”
DAX beats S&P 500
“The unease on the stock markets could persist if the threatened tariffs are actually introduced,” says Claudia Windt from Helaba. She points out that President Trump's capital market record has so far been rather modest and is evidence of increasing uncertainty among investors. “The broad market S&P 500 has slipped just below the zero line over the year, while the DAX is up over 13 percent.”
Price history speaks for sideways trend
However, Uwe Streich from LBBW fears that the DAX rally is now running out of steam. “At the end of February, only in 2012 and 2015 was the DAX in a better position than it is now,” he explains. “After such a rocket start, the air was usually out.” From March to July, this was generally followed by a sideways trend. In the median of the eight best years to date, the DAX was 0.8% or 1.2% higher at the end of the year than at the end of February - but only due to a year-end rally. “In between, there were regular significant setbacks - especially in August and September.”
“A jump above the record high clears the way north”
Christian Henke from IG points out that the correction in the DAX is limited and that it is moving upwards again despite the announcement of new US tariffs. He is convinced that the DAX can now end the consolidation. Today, the short-term downward trend at 22,747 points could be targeted and then the last all-time high could be cleared out of the way. “A jump above the all-time high would clear the way north,” explains the technical analyst.
Meanwhile, the reporting season continues. In Europe, 59 companies from the Stoxx Europe 600 are opening their books, including Bayer, Adidas, Deutsche Post and Lindt & Sprüngli, as reported by Deutsche Bank. Only twelve companies from the S&P 500 reported, including Crowdstrike and Hewlett Packard.
Christian Henke
Important economic and business events of the week
Monday, 3 March
11.00 am. Eurozone: Consumer prices February.
4.00 pm. USA: ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index February. The index is expected to fall from 50.9 to 50.5, explains Deutsche Bank. The upward trend of the past four months has thus been interrupted for the time being. The decline reflects the uncertainty in the economy in connection with the possibility of a new trade conflict and the geopolitical environment.
Wednesday, 5 March
China: National People's Congress. China's government is likely to set the economic growth target for 2025 at “around 5%”, as it did last year, according to DekaBank. In order to achieve this target, fiscal policy in particular would have to make a greater contribution.
After the close of trading: result of the index review. Every three months, a decision is made as to which companies are to be included in the DAX, TecDAX, MDAX and SDAX selection indices or have to leave them. Possible changes will be implemented on 21 March.
Thursday, 6 March
2.15 pm. Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision. A further cut in key interest rates is very likely, explains Hamburg Commercial Bank. In addition, ECB chief Christine Lagarde will probably give an indication as to whether a pause in interest rates is being considered.
Friday, 7 March
2.30 pm. USA: Unemployment figures for February. According to Commerzbank, employment in the USA probably rose again substantially in February. Soon, however, the cuts in the federal workforce could make themselves felt.
by: Anna-Maria Borse, 3 March 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG
About the Author
Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in the financial market/stock exchange and economic topics.
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