27/02/25 10:45:00

Commodities: “Gold price of USD 3,000 only a matter of time”

The uncertain geopolitical situation has lifted the price of gold to a new high. Gold ETCs, which were so unpopular last year, are also in demand. The price of oil, on the other hand, has fallen and oil ETCs are on the sell lists.


27 February 2025 FRANKFURT (Frankfurt Stock Exchange). Another new all-time high for gold - the price of a troy ounce climbed to 2,965 US dollars on Monday this week. “The 3,000 US dollar mark is within reach. Reaching it is probably only a matter of time,” says commodities analyst Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank. Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its price forecast and is now expecting USD 3,100 by the end of the year. On Thursday morning, it is slightly lower again at 2,887 US dollars.

“Ongoing geopolitical tensions, concerns about US customs measures, potentially overvalued stock markets and signs of creeping inflation are fueling the precious metal,” explains Mobeen Tahir from issuer WisdomTree. However, he also points out that if inflation picks up and key interest rates rise again, gold could lose its status as a non-yielding investment. On the other hand, a possible peace agreement in the Ukraine/Russia war will probably have no impact. “The recent ceasefires in other conflict areas have not stopped the upward trend of the gold price,” emphasizes Tahir.

Martin Siegert from LBBW points out that although the silver price is far below its all-time high, it has also risen significantly this year. Since the beginning of the year, it has risen by 9 percent. “The upward trend could continue for silver in particular, as it plays a key role in many industries, such as the automotive and electronics sectors and photovoltaics,” he explains. Silver is also gaining importance in artificial intelligence, particularly in batteries, computers and data centers. 

Buying, but also profit-taking

Precious metal ETCs have recorded high inflows over the past four weeks, as reported by WisdomTree. For January, the analysis and trading company Crossflow reported inflows into gold ETCs in Europe amounting to EUR 3.1 billion. On a twelve-month horizon, however, outflows still dominated at 2.6 billion euros, and on a three-year horizon the figure was as high as 9.9 billion euros.

ETC traders report high turnover in gold ETCs. “These are mostly purchases,” notes Moritz Kretschmann from Lang & Schwarz (IE00B4ND3602). “Sometimes profits are also taken, for example in Invesco Physical Gold (IE00B579F325),” reports Ivo Orlemann from ICF Bank. ETC trading on Xetra continues to be dominated by gold ETCs. As always, Xetra-Gold (DE000A0S9GB0) shows high turnover. However, Xtrackers IE Physical Gold (DE000A2T0VU5) and Invesco Physical Gold (IE00B579F325) also see high turnover. Also strong in terms of turnover: silver ETCs such as Invesco Physical Silver (IE00B43VDT70. Xetra-Gold's gold holdings have risen again and currently stand at 173 tons, above the level at the end of 2024. At the end of 2023, however, the figure was 198.7 tons. 

Brent price significantly lower

By contrast, the price of oil has fallen sharply. A barrel of North Sea Brent crude cost 72 US dollars on Thursday morning. A month ago, it was still over 82 US dollars. “The generally gloomy mood on the financial markets has weighed on prices,” explained commodities analyst Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank. In addition, the surprising increase in oil reserves in the USA put pressure on prices. WisdomTree reports outflows from energy ETCs for the past four weeks. The WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil (JE00B78CGV99), for example, recorded high Xetra turnover. 

Industrial metal prices: Tight supply situation in some cases

Industrial metal prices have risen slightly this year. Copper currently costs USD 9,403, compared to USD 8,846 at the beginning of the year. The price of aluminum has climbed from USD 2,522 to over USD 2,700. “Aluminum has reached its highest level in months, boosted by a tight supply situation, improving demand prospects and a change in trade policy,” explains Tahir. China, for example, will now significantly reduce its production. The US tariffs on aluminum imports of 25 percent are also likely to drive up prices. As Tahir notes, industrial metal ETCs have seen net inflows at a low level over the past four weeks. “Among the top performers was aluminum (GB00B15KXN58).” Always heavily traded: the WisdomTree Industrial Metals (GB00B15KYG56). 

By Anna-Maria Borse, 27 February 2025, © Deutsche Börse

Anna-Maria Borse is a financial and business editor specializing in the financial market/stock exchange and economic topics.

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