“Change of favorites on the markets: How “out” are tech stocks?”

Nothing has really changed fundamentally during the summer months: Nvidia and co. are producing fat profits and the AI revolution remains the big topic on the markets. However, there is something bubbling under the surface: since the end of June, there has been a change in favorites: Tech stocks are being sold off, classic sectors are making a comeback. Ali Masarwah, fund analyst and managing director of the financial services provider envestor, explains what investors should know.
 

9 September 2024. FRANKFURT (envestor). Wenn Anleger nach einer ausgedehnten Sommerpause das Geschehene Revue passieren lassen, werden sie keine großen fundamentalen Veränderungen seit Ende Juni feststellen. Das Datenhaus Factset hat eine Nachlese veröffentlicht zur Berichterstattung der US-Unternehmen im zweiten Quartal. Demnach lag das Gewinnwachstum der Unternehmen im S&P 500 zwischen April und Juni bei 10,8 Prozent. Das war die höchste Steigerung seit dem vierten Quartal 2021. Auch das Umsatzwachstum der US-Unternehmen war mit einem Plus von 5,2 Prozent im zweiten Quartal zufriedenstellend.

Und was machen die Märkte daraus? Anfang August brachen die Aktienkurse weltweit ein, was sich einen Monat später – zwar mit weniger Wucht – wiederholte. Man muss allerdings diese Aussage qualifizieren. Nicht DIE Aktienkurse haben verloren, sondern vor allem ein Marktsegment: Tech-Aktien, genauer gesagt: Nvidia und Hyperscaler wie Alphabet, Amazon, Meta und Microsoft, also die wichtigsten Träger der KI-Hype.

An den vier Handelstagen nach Bekanntgabe glänzender Quartalszahlen verlor Nvidia 500 Milliarden Dollar an Marktwert an der Börse. Auch andere Tech-Giganten sackten ab, wenn auch nicht so kräftig wie Nvidia. Die Financial Times hat ausgerechnet, dass Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet und Meta bisher im dritten Quartal einen Börsenwert von 1,8 Billionen Dollar eingebüßt haben.

Branchenrotation - jetzt in diesem Kino

Das Bemerkenswerte an Regimewechseln ist, dass man erst in Nachhinein realisiert, dass sie sich vollzogen haben. Wenn sie im Gange sind, verharren die meisten Anleger noch in der „alten Zeit“. Das ist nicht verwunderlich, denn in aller Regel vollziehen sich Trendwechsel nicht gradlinig. Erst wenn sich ein Trend verstetigt hat, akzeptieren wir, dass sich die Lage grundlegend verändert hat. Bis der Regimewechsel vollzogen ist, zeichnen Anleger anhand von Fundamentaldaten Kontinuitätslinien weiter.

Ein guter Gradmesser für Veränderungen ist der Aktienmarkt. Die Börse ist ein klassischer Frühindikator für fundamentale Veränderungen. Anleger antizipieren die Zukunft, das Heute ist die Performance von gestern. Vor diesem Hintergrund geben Sektoren-Indizes eine gute Indikation für die Erwartungen von Anlegenden. Sowohl in Europa als auch in den USA haben sich in den vergangenen zwei Monaten auf Branchenebene interessante Verschiebungen ergeben, wie die untere Tabelle zeigt.

The top table shows, from left to right, the valuations (12-month price/earnings ratios). The columns further to the right show the returns of the stocks represented in the major sector indices. In the US, tech stocks have been the big winners over the past five years, as the annualized gain of 21.5% shows. Energy stocks benefited from a rapid recovery in 2021 and 2022 in the wake of rising inflation after a long drought. The picture was similar in Europe, although tech stocks were nowhere near as successful as in the US. Between 2019 and today, in addition to tech stocks, the winners in Europe were industrial and financial stocks. The healthcare sector was also ahead. In the USA, shares from the consumer staples and utilities sectors have performed weakly over the long term since 2019. In Europe, the losers were also consumer staples, telecoms and luxury consumer goods.

This picture has changed completely since June. In the USA, utilities stood out from the beginning of July to the beginning of September with an increase of a good 8.5%. Financial shares and consumer staples stocks also made substantial gains. Healthcare stocks were also comfortably in positive territory over the past two months. In contrast, US tech stocks have slumped by a good ten percent since the start of the third quarter. Energy shares and telecoms have also performed poorly. In the latter case, it should be noted that tech platforms such as Meta and Alphabet have been counted as telecommunications service providers since 2019.

In Europe, utilities have also been the winners in the third quarter so far. They have even risen by a good 11% since the beginning of July. Telecoms and consumer staples stocks were also among the winners. So yesterday's losers are today's winners. European tech shares, on the other hand, have fallen by a good 13.5 percent since July. Energy and luxury consumption were also among the losers this quarter.

Conclusion: Is it different this time?

The sector rotation seems to be underway. While tech stocks have been losing ground since the beginning of July, classic, boring sectors such as utilities, financials and consumer goods are coming back into fashion with investors. The theory of a change in favorites is supported by the outperformance of second-line stocks, which we have also been observing since the beginning of July. In the USA, for example, the small cap index Russell 2000 has outperformed the equally weighted S&P 500 since July, which in turn has outperformed the (capitalization-weighted) S&P 500.

False signals cannot be ruled out with such timely observations, but it seems likely that things will turn out differently this time and that we are facing a renaissance of traditional sectors in the wake of the announced interest rate turnaround. This does not necessarily mean a crash for tech stocks, nor is an end to the AI hype likely. But tech stocks could face significant underperformance in the coming months. Investors should take this scenario as an opportunity to ensure that their portfolios have a broad base.