Commodities: “Gold, gold and more gold”
In commodity ETC trading, investors clearly focused on precious metal products in the past week. Gold in particular, as a supposed “safe haven”, saw increased trading.
3 April 2025. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). The price of gold rose to a new record high of around 3,170 dollars per troy ounce at the beginning of April. Since the turn of the year, the precious metal has risen in price by a good 18 percent. “Gold is benefiting from its role as a hedge against inflation, financial instability and geopolitical risks,” explains Mobeen Tahir from WisdomTree. With the escalating trade conflicts, the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, increasing differences between the US and Europe, the weaker US dollar and the fall in US government bond yields since January, there are numerous factors supporting the rise in gold. In addition, China's new investment policy for gold and the central bank's ongoing purchases point to sustained demand.
“Strongest quarterly rise since 1986”
Thu Lan Nguyen from Commerzbank points out that the rally in the first three months of the current year corresponded to the “strongest quarterly rise since 1986” in percentage terms, albeit at a significantly lower price level at the time. The commodities analyst blames this primarily on the reciprocal tariffs announced by the US government, which have now been officially adopted. "The market seems to be particularly afraid of the consequences for the US economy and is therefore increasingly relying on interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. As the tariffs also have an inflationary effect, the (expected) US real interest rate will be depressed, which in turn will have a positive impact on the gold price."
However, the Commerzbank economists do not expect the Fed to resume interest rate cuts quickly, which is why Nguyen sees “the risk of a setback for gold remains”. For Robert Rethfeld from “Wellenreiter Invest”, “signs of consolidation” are already visible. He tends to take a critical view of the recent price gap in the current upward trend. “It is better if the trend is calm and gradual”. However, he sees it as positive that speculation on rising prices on the futures market is currently “not yet at the limit”.
Exceptionally high net inflows
According to LBBW, the massive ETC purchases are also a driver of the gold boom. The dimensions become clear when looking at the global net flows in commodity ETPs. Precious metal products dominate here on a monthly basis with growth of USD 12.7 billion, which is well above average. “Capital flows into precious metals were exceptionally strong last month,” reports Tahir. Xetra-Gold has increased its gold holdings by around five percent so far this year. The holdings currently stand at around 175 tons of gold (DE000A0S9GB0).
At Vontobel and Société Générale, gold was also clearly the most frequently traded underlying asset in March. However, investors in Switzerland did not only bet on rising prices. “There was increased buying on both the long and short side,” as certificate expert David Hartmann notes. The call/put ratio for gold products was also “fairly balanced”. Nevertheless, the open-end turbo warrant on gold (DE000VG4CVG7) and the mini future on gold (DE000VG7BAT9), two highly leveraged products that benefit from a further price increase, were the most popular. The same picture can be seen at Société Générale, where Patrick Kesselhut reports strong interest in a Best Unlimited Turbo Call warrant on gold (DE000SJ4BBV2) and a Best Unlimited Turbo Call warrant on gold (DE000SJ4S4S7) with a good seven and ten times leverage respectively.
By Thomas Koch, 3 April 2025, © Deutsche Börse
Deutsche Börse 
