Weekly outlook: “Door open for longer correction phase”

A date steeped in history

“April 2, 2025 could go down in history as the day that marks the end of an era that has lasted since the Second World War: that of largely liberal global trade,” comments Helaba analyst Patrick Franke. Given that Germany's most important industry is in the “eye of the storm”, his colleague Claudia Windt believes that the losses on the stock markets in this country have so far been limited. “However, the door now seems open for a longer correction phase.”

“Uncertainty and major price fluctuations”

Thorsten Weinelt from Commerzbank assumes that trading partners will hardly accept the US measures without resistance. “If the US responds to the expected countermeasures with even more far-reaching tariffs, the global economic environment is likely to deteriorate significantly,” he is convinced. “The stock markets are also likely to be characterized by uncertainty and major price fluctuations this week.”

“Not technically cracked yet”

According to technical analyst Christoph Geyer, the DAX has shown weakness in the past week, but is still not technically cracked. The support zone that has been established in recent weeks is becoming increasingly important. The most recent downward movement was not accompanied by rising turnover. “As the indicators are also in neutral territory, there is also no pressure from this side,” he adds. “The overall upward trend is still intact, which is why the German market looks relatively stronger than the US markets.”

Important economic and business events of the week

Monday, 31. March

2.00 pm. Germany: Consumer prices March. According to Commerzbank, the inflation rate is likely to have fallen from 2.3 to 2.1 percent.

Tuesday, April 1

11.00 am. Eurozone: Consumer prices March. Inflation is likely to have fallen by a tenth of a percentage point to 2.2 percent, according to DekaBank. On the one hand, this is due to lower prices for energy goods. On the other hand, the bank also expects the core rate to fall to 2.5 percent.

Thursday, April 3

4.00 pm USA: ISM Index March. The ISM index for the manufacturing industry could fall from 50.3 to 49.5 points, explains Commerzbank. It expects hardly any change in the ISM index for the service sector, which is due for publication on Thursday.

Wednesday, April 2

USA: Following the announcement of tariffs on cars and car parts, the US government plans to announce further “reciprocal” tariffs on Wednesday (“Liberation Day”).

Thursday, April 3

1:30 pm. Eurozone: Summary of the ECB meeting on March 6.

Friday, April 4

2:30 pm. USA: Unemployment figures for March. After the US economy created 151,000 new jobs in February, a decline to 135,000 is now expected, as reported by Deutsche Bank. For the first time, job cuts at federal agencies could be reflected in the figures. However, the unemployment rate is likely to remain very low at 4.1 percent.

by Anna-Maria Borse, 31 March 2025, © Deutsche Börse AG